Dr. Oliver Wing and his team created projected flood loss maps under the modest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenario outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which predicts climate patterns if emissions peak in 2040 and then decline. They analyzed those data in concert with projected population and demographic shifts from the U.S. Census Bureau as well as with building and infrastructure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Combined, these data sets allowed the researchers to predict where people are likely to live in 2050, where infrastructure is likely to develop, and where flooding (and associated damage) is likely to occur. The Study shows that Urban and rural areas with predominantly Black communities will see at least a 20% increase in flood risk, whereas majority white regions will see little to no change in their risk. What’s more, areas with lower-income populations will continue to face more risk than affluent ones.

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